Company Reports

Helia, formerly known as Genworth, has a long history of providing mortgage insurance to lenders in Australia but has only been listed on the ASX since May 2014. Global US-based insurer Genworth Financial listed it and completely sold out in 2021. We think it is likely Helia will find it challenging to grow its lender's mortgage insurance business in the face of increased competition. We believe the entrance of Arch Capital Group, and increasing tendency of lenders to self-insure, will see Helia cede further share over time.

Seven West Media, which generates the majority of its earnings through Seven Network's free-to-air TV and broadcast video on demand units, offers exposure to the AUD 3.6 billion total Australian linear and digital television advertising market. Free-to-air TV is a media segment that is declining. This has been caused by growing digital media alternatives, rapidly changing entertainment consumption habits, and increasing high-speed broadband adoption.

We believe no-moat Dick’s Sporting Goods lacks an edge as sporting goods are sold through many channels. Although its sales and profitability growth over the past three years has been very high, we believe a slowdown is likely, as sporting goods retail is vulnerable to external competition. According to IBISWorld, sporting goods retail sales experienced average annual growth of just 1.3% in the five years before the pandemic. While Dick’s recent sales growth has generally outpaced this level, some of its rivals have posted strong results of their own. The firm’s competitors include e-commerce operators (such as wide-moat Amazon), mass retailers, specialty stores (narrow-moat Lululemon, Foot Locker, Bass Pro Shops/Cabela’s), and branded stores and owned e-commerce from major vendors. As an example of the latter, wide-moat Nike’s direct-to-consumer sales constituted about 44% of its fiscal 2023 Nike brand revenue sales, up from less than 20% before 2015. While Dick’s has strong relationships with Nike and other vendors, we do not believe its market position is strong enough to prevent it from offering exclusive merchandise in alternate channels. We forecast its compound average yearly sales growth at 4%-5% over the next decade.

APA Group is Australia's premier gas infrastructure company. Limited regulation, scale, and a superior skills base help it capitalize on gas demand growth and generate competitive advantages that warrant a narrow economic moat. However, gas market reform and potential regulation of pipelines could weaken its competitive advantages. Fair value uncertainty is medium, as secure revenue is balanced by high gearing and limited transparency over customer contracts.

A key attraction of Hotel Property Investments is favorable lease terms that provide predictable, growing rental income from long-term leases to Queensland Venue Co. QVC is a joint venture between supermarket giant Coles and private equity-owned Australian Venue Co. AVC manages the day-to-day operations of the hotels, with Coles needing the hotel licences to operate its liquor retailing business under restrictive Queensland laws. There is ongoing uncertainty around Coles' longer-term strategy regarding its liquor business following competitor Woolworths' decision to exit its liquor and hotel businesses.

We believe Cummins will remain the top supplier of truck engines and components, despite intensifying emissions regulation. For more than a century, the company has been the pre-eminent manufacturer of diesel engines, establishing its place as one of the best heavy- and medium-duty engine brands. Cummins' strong brand is underpinned by its high-performing and durable engines. Customers also value Cummins’ ability to enhance the value of their trucks, leading to product differentiation.

US homebuilders enjoyed a robust demand environment from 2020-22 despite the covid-19 pandemic. We believe several factors explain the pandemic-era housing surge, including increased suburban and cross-state migration (due in part to the rise of flexible work arrangements), government stimulus (which bolstered household savings), and record-low mortgage rates (which supported affordability despite rising home prices). However, home sales activity began to decline in 2022 as rising mortgage rates and high home prices reduced homeownership affordability. Total housing starts declined 3% in 2022 and another 9% in 2023.

NXP Semiconductors is one of the largest suppliers of semiconductors for the automotive market and a significant player in the analog and mixed-signal chip markets generally. We believe the company has a strong position in the automotive, industrial, mobile, and communications infrastructure markets through a combination of switching costs and intangible assets. Although the company sells into cyclical industries, the strength of these competitive advantages gives us confidence that it will generate excess returns over the cost of capital over the next decade and beyond.

We believe Gap’s family of brands lacks an intangible asset or cost advantage that would provide an economic moat. The company has experienced years of inconsistent results and has recently suffered major merchandizing and supply chain woes. Still, Gap has fair liquidity, and we view its Old Navy chain as a solid business. According to Euromonitor, it was the second-largest individual apparel brand by retail sales in the United States in 2023, and, despite ongoing issues, we view Gap’s goal of $10 billion in annual sales for Old Navy (up from $8.2 billion in 2023) as achievable by the end of this decade. The concept, though, faces considerable competition in the discount apparel space and already has nearly 1,250 North America stores, so much of its future growth is expected to come from stores in smaller, unproven markets. As we are wary of the potential of these markets, we do not view Gap’s stated goal of 2,000 Old Navy stores in North America as reasonable. Rather, we forecast it will have just over 1,400 locations in 10 years.

Since opening its first fasteners store in 1967, Fastenal has built one of the largest industrial distribution businesses in the United States. For many years, Fastenal’s growth story was driven by its branch count, which now stands at roughly 1,600 locations. While this expansive footprint is still an important component of Fastenal’s business model, other strategies--including expanding its product portfolio, its vending and inventory management services, and, most recently, its on-site program--have become increasingly important growth drivers.

W.W. Grainger operates in the highly fragmented maintenance, repair, and operating product distribution market, where its over $16 billion of sales represents only 6% global market share (the company has 7% share in the United States and 4% in Canada). The growing prevalence of e-commerce has intensified the competitive environment because of more price transparency and increased access to a wider array of vendors, including Amazon Business, which has entered the mix. As consumer preference began to shift to online and electronic purchasing platforms, Grainger invested heavily in improving its e-commerce capabilities and restructuring its distribution network. It is the now the 11th-largest e-retailer in North America; it shrank its US branch network from 423 in 2010 to 246 in 2021 and added distribution centers in the US to support the growing amount of direct-to-customer shipments. Still, the company had work to do on its pricing. Grainger historically relied on a pricing model that applied contractual discounts to high list prices. Leading up to 2017, though, this model made it difficult to win new business. To address this problem, Grainger rolled out a more competitive pricing model. Lower prices hurt gross profit margins, but volume gains, especially among higher-margin spot buys and midsize accounts, have offset price reductions and helped the company meet its 12%-13% operating margin goal by 2019 (12.1% adjusted operating margin that year).

Unlike other global contract manufacturing organizations, Samsung Biologics differentiates itself by focusing on biologics modalities. Biologics are large molecule treatments made from living cells with a higher degree of complexity compared with traditional chemically synthesized small molecule drugs. Biological products include antibodies, vaccines, gene therapies, and many other novel treatments, which are the focus of research and development spending for largely unmet medical needs. Given the interest in this pharmaceutical area, Samsung Biologics’ revenue has expanded at a compound annual growth rate of 48.5% for the past 9 years. We think Samsung Biologics can still enjoy the secular tailwind in demand for biologics in the next decade.

We believe Paccar will remain a top-two truck manufacturer, even with the eventual shift to autonomous and electric vehicles. The company has long been known for its premium truck brands, Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF. Paccar’s trucks are some of the strongest performing, most durable, and fuel-efficient on the market. These factors have led to the company’s strong brand reputation among fleet owners and truck drivers.

Sampo is an efficiently run Nordics-based personal lines insurer that tends to focus on improving its underwriting quality year on year—be that through holding on to customers for longer and therefore paying less in acquisition costs; be that through the digitalization of its operations and extraction of expenses; be that through scale and negotiation power with its partners such as BMW, Ford, Mercedes, Nissan, Nordea, Volkswagon, Volvia; or be that through an ability to select lower-cost customers in terms of claims, or customers that are willing to pay that little bit more in price. Sampo has proved this ability year on year and tends to invest around EUR 100 million a year to achieve this. We think the savings the company has generated from these investments have more than covered their cost and more than covered the returns the business was already generating. In other words, we believe these investments have been value-accretive.

Before 2016, the market had mostly viewed Johnson Controls as an automotive-parts company because about two thirds of its sales came from automakers. However, after merging with Tyco and spinning off its automotive seating business, now known as Adient, in late 2016, Johnson Controls has become a more profitable and less cyclical pure-play building technology firm that manufactures HVAC systems and controls, fire and security products, and building automation solutions.

CNH Industrial provides customers with an extensive portfolio of off-highway products. We believe it will continue to be a top-two player in the agriculture industry. For generations, the company’s agriculture equipment has garnered intense brand loyalty among farmers. Customers value CNH’s high-quality and strong-performing products, in addition to its robust dealer network. In developed markets, CNH helps customers reduce the total cost of ownership through improved fuel efficiency, limited machine downtime, and consistent parts availability.

We view Rockwell as the highest quality automation player on the west side of the Atlantic based on quality, breadth of offerings, and shrewd strategic partnerships. Today, it is one of the best-in-breed competitors seeking to gain a stronger foothold where technology meets traditional manufacturing, which Rockwell deems the Connected Enterprise.

Deere offers customers an extensive portfolio of agriculture and construction equipment. We think it will continue to be the leader in the agriculture industry and one of the top players in construction. For over a century, the company has been the pre-eminent manufacturer of mission-critical agricultural equipment, which has led to its leading brand recognition. Deere’s strong brand is underpinned by its high-quality, extremely durable, and efficient products. Customers in developed markets also value Deere’s ability to reduce their total cost of ownership through productivity and other efficiency enhancements.

Qiagen aims to help scientists and caregivers use biological samples to identify and solve problems related to DNA, RNA, and proteins, which should remain in high demand even after the pandemic, albeit probably at a reset rate following that unique event. Qiagen's roots are in products that help scientists prepare biological samples for various experiments, and sample preparation products account for nearly 35% of sales. Qiagen remains a key leader in this niche, and we expect Qiagen to continue to invest to maintain or improve in that business in the long run.

We expect the medium and long-term strategic focus for Car Group to revolve around functional and geographic expansion.